Stammering Kings and disrespected Swans

It's Oscar nomination morning, so this is what I think:

Ugly Duckling: Black Swan didn't get nearly as much love as it should have. No screenplay nomination, no costume or art direction. Granted, the whole movie is shrouded in black, white and gray, but the switches between light and dark help drive the narrative. Thought it would be in the running with The Social Network for best picture, but it looks like that movie has a different friend.

The King Speaks: I liked The King's Speech, I really did. It was an interesting, well-acted movie, but it could have been so much more than it was. Maybe I'm punishing it in my mind for not being better rather than giving it credit for being as good as it was, but I just don't believe it deserves Best Picture. Now that it's received the most nominations, it's clearly in the running with The Social Network.

Then There's True Grit . . . It could happen. It's a good, accessible genre movie from the Coen brothers who won with a similar movie in No Country For Old Men. It's also a well-made remake of a familar Hollywood movie. It might not win, but it's going to take some votes from the others. Which one pays?

Upset prediction: Hailee Steinfeld wins Supporting Actress for a role that was really a leading role. She's in nearly every scene of True Grit.

I'm still in Network: The King's Speech is going to pick up the techinical awards it's nominated for (other than cinematography, which will go to Black Swan) and Best Actor for Colin Firth. It also will win Best Original Screenplay, but The Social Network will come home with four awards — Adapted Screenplay, Score, Director and the big one, Best Picture. It's going to be a question of what age group dominates the voters these days. The King's Speech subject matter and approach are more traditional and familiar. The Social Network, while not excatly edgy, deals with subject matter that is somewhat generational specific; to truly appreciate what Aaron Sorkin was getting at, it helps to have some experience with the odd mix of introversion and extroversion that things like Facebook have introduced into our communication.

But we'll know the winner soon: The Screen Actors Guild awards are announced this weekend. It represents the largest group of voters and both The King's Speech and The Social Network are nominated for ensemble cast, the SAG's equivalent of Best Picture. The King's Speech has already won with the producer's guild, so another win here begins to make it look like a lock. A win for The Social Network establishes that as the favorite.