On how 500 means nothing

We here at America's Fish do not take pleasure in the news that yet another player -- this time the Los Angeles Dodgers' Manny Ramirez -- has been implicated in the ongoing steroids drama around Major League Baseball. We took a small amount of pleasure in delivering the news to a Dodgers fan, but it was short-lived and a little hollow. Now we have to listen to the shock -- shock! -- expressed by sportswriters, analysts and fans who still can manage to be shocked at all after Mark McGwire, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez have already proven to be less than pure.

We do not want to be mistaken as apologists for athletes who used banned or illegal substances. But before we go on, it must be noted that line between banned substances and approved substances is very thin. How a player bulks up or what he takes to recover more quickly after a game is less important than that he does it all. To put it another way: going back more than a decade, andro was OK until it wasn't OK. But the net result was the same: Mark McGwire, once a skinny kid with a big hole in his swing and frequent knee injuries got big enough and stayed healthy long enough to break the single-season home run record and finish his career with 583 home runs, which at the time he retired that was a no-brainer number for the Hall of Fame. What if he had accomplished the same thing -- bulking up and staying healthy -- with totally approved and legal substances? Some players have actually done that. Even if the player remains untainted, the numbers for the era have been skewed.

Which brings us to where we are today: what do these numbers mean any more? We at America's Fish are less interested in the ethical/moral/legal issues regarding steroids, and more interested in what it means down the road for the Hall of Fame, for the legacy of players and more importantly, what it does to this era in baseball.

Where we start is with the number 500. Until Mark McGwire was passed over during his first two years of eligibility, any player with 500 home runs was a lock for the Hall of Fame. Now that precedent has been shattered. Many voters needed no reason other than the steroids to not vote for him, but it's noteworthy that many voters with McGwire pointed to his other numbers as justification for exclusion. Outside of that one number, McGwire's career was actually pretty so-so. Things get more complicated in the coming years when Barry Bonds and, to steal an example from pitching, Roger Clemens become eligible. It would be extraordinarily hard to argue that either player would not have been a Hall of Famer if he had not taken performance enhancing drugs late in his career. So will they be excluded merely for taking steroids? And if so, who does that leave for the Hall of Fame in the next decade?

On that note, we at America's Fish have a few predictions regarding the Hall of Fame chances of the latest members of the 500 home run club:

Barry Bonds (762): Now the poster child for the era -- a huge relief to McGwire -- Bonds is paying the price for many crimes: being implicated in steroids, lying about it, and being a jerk while doing both. In the end, it may be his relationship -- or lack of one -- with sportswriters that costs him a spot. The biggest problem isn't that he has been implicated again and again or even that he has lied about it. It is that he has been so unrepentantly stubborn about about those lies. He seems to blame everyone else for not believing his lies. That said, regardless of went into his body, he was The Hitter of his era, and maybe the best ever. Steroids did not make it impossible to throw a pitch by him. The prediction: He'll get in after a few years, but sportswriters are going to punish him first.

Ken Griffey Jr. (613*): Please, please, please, oh please, let him end his career without any dark, dirty secrets being revealed. Junior is our last hope. The prediction: A lock, regardless of what happens next.

Sammy Sosa (609): Sosa was once the poster child for skinny kid turned slugger. It was hard not to look at him and shake your head -- it was only a matter of time before we learned how he got so big. While he was never been directly implicated like some other players, the suspicion around him is pretty heavy. On the other hand, he hit 60 home runs in a season more often than any other player, and he finished his career in the more exclusive 600 home run club. He will be a good test when he becomes eligible. The home runs, even in this era, should make him a lock, but an impression still lingers that he was secondary to McGwire, even though his numbers are better across the board. Still, there's (barely) plausible deniability regarding Sosa and steroids. If he gets in, it opens to door for a few others. The prediction: He gets in -- maybe on the first ballot (but barely, if he does), more likely in his second year causing many players on this list to breathe a huge sigh of relief.

Mark McGwire (583): A lot of McGwire's situation is personal with sportswriters, a resentment that he made us all look stupid for making him into a hero just because he hit those home runs. But what makes it easy is that beyond a great rookie season and two huge seasons in the late '90s, his career was injury plagued and at times embarrassing. How many Hall of Famers (non-pitchers) had a run of three seasons in which they hit .231, .235 and .201? He finished his career with 1,626 hits. Even Jose Canseco had more. The prediction: Maybe years from now he will be veterans committee guy. Maybe.

Rafael Palmeiro (569): In another era, he's Dwight Evans or maybe Dale Murphy. It was upon his hitting two milestones -- 500 home runs and 3,000 hits -- that much of the baseball world looked up collectively and said, "Huh?" He was a good player, the kind of guy you wanted in the middle of the lineup in his prime, but he never seemed like a sure bet for the Hall of Fame until suddenly, there he was more home runs than Mickey Mantle and Jimmy Foxx. How did that happen? Oh yeah, steroids. But complicating the decision is that Palmeiro, unlike McGwire, was a well-rounded hitter finishing his career with a .288 average and 3,020 hits. He could make the Hall many years down the road when a handful of other tainted players are in as well. But Palmeiro has two more strikes against him: he was a designated hitter for much of his career and when he was putting up big numbers, so was Brady Anderson. The prediction: He misses again and again, and gets in is final year of eligibility, long after others have set a standard regarding both DHs and tainted players getting in.

Alex Rodriguez (553*): What Rodriguez has going for him is time. He's still young enough to finish his career with a flourish that will wipe away his past indiscretions. Plus, most of the other names on this list will face a Hall of Fame test long before Rodriguez does. He's a bit like a younger child who gets caught drinking but is let off the hook by his parents because his older sister got caught first and paid the price for both of them (not that such a thing ever, uh, happened in the Fish family). He made the wise decision to admit his steroid use and avoid the additional black mark that Bonds, Clemens and McGwire have acquired for continually trying to deny the obvious. The prediction: It's hard to see how he won't make the Hall of Fame. On the other hand, just as he has plenty of time to wipe away his mistakes, there's plenty of time to do something stupid like, oh, tip pitches to his friends.

Jim Thome (545*): Although he's never been implicated for having used steroids, he may pay the price for the era. Like McGwire, Thome's numbers are pretty unimpressive beyond the home runs. Like Palmeiro, he has been a DH for the last part of his career, likely prolonging it significantly. On the other hand, he may benefit from being perceived as one of the untainted. But we suspect that by the time he is eligible for the Hall, sportswriters will be extraordinarily wary of giving any player credit for being untainted. Too many of those players have already fallen. The prediction: Hall of Famer in his second year of eligibility.

Manny Ramirez (533*): Ramirez, by virtue of getting caught, has something going for him that no other potential Hall of Famer so far implicated has: he is being punished for his crimes during his career. Rumors and allegations about others came out long after the fact. Rodriguez admitted what he did, but didn't get suspended (not yet, at least) because the rules were different when he did it. Ramirez used, was tested and has been suspended. Sportswriters will be less likely to feel like they need punish him after the fact. The prediction: He'll probably get in. His numbers are good and getting better. If he hits 600 home runs, he's probably a lock, but maybe has to wait a couple years before he gets in.

Frank Thomas (521*): Much of the argument for and against him is identical to that of Thome. His numbers are good, but they would have been a lot better if he had avoided injuries, and there's a question of how much his numbers have been boosted by being primarily a DH -- he played a 100 or more games in the field in just three seasons. On the other hand, there is a perception that he was a clean player in a dirty era. The prediction: Like Thome, he likely gains a few points for that perception and gets into the Hall, but not on his first try.

Gary Sheffield (500*): This will be interesting. He has been peripherally implicated several times, but has never really been the center of attention regarding allegations. Someone -- Giambi or Clemens or Bonds -- has continued to steal the spotlight from him. Probably the knock against him is that despite an assumption that he did take steroids, his numbers are pretty so-so compared to people like Sosa and Palmeiro. The prediction: Years from now, we'll be having a similar debate about Sheffield that we did about Jim Rice. A fringe Hall candidate, with some arguing strongly for him and just as many arguing strongly against him. But unlike Rice, ultimately, he will not get into the Hall.

Roger Clemens (354 wins): As a bonus, let's consider Clemens' candidacy because it likely affects everyone on this list. Clemens, like Bonds, has become a poster child for both the era and what not to do when confronted with the obvious. He has never been apologetic, has never admitted a thing, which just challenges people to dislike and suspect him more. But he might be the greatest pitcher ever -- we're not saying his, just that he's part of the debate. The prediction: He'll get in, but he will be punished for his denials.