Avatar feeling blue with noms near

Maybe Avatar isn't a lock, after all. Two curious developments over the weekend have at least cast doubt on the certainty of an Avatar win for Best Picture. First, the Screen Actors Guild gave its ensemble award to Inglourious Basterds. Then the Producers Guild gave its top award to The Hurt Locker.

Avatar wasn't even up for any SAG awards, not exactly a shock given that what exactly constituted a performance in the movie is rather hard to define. But even if the loss wasn't technically a loss because the movie wasn't nominated, it's still not the best situation to have the largest group of Academy voters -- actors -- getting in the habit of voting for other movies.

As for the producers award, it most closely resembled the potential Oscar matchup, in that 10 movies were nominated for the top award, including Avatar. A loss there certainly diminished if not entirely eliminated Avatar's frontrunner status.

If Avatar were sweeping the other awards, it wouldn't be a problem. But with a pass on the SAGs and a loss with the producers, it's possible Avatar will not win the top award from any of the major Hollywood guilds. The Directors Guild announces its winner Saturday night. If James Cameron does not win the award -- and my money right now would be on either Kathryn Bigelow or Quentin Tarantino -- he's in big trouble, because a Cameron win for original screenplay with the writers seems highly unlikely. He is up against The Hurt Locker, (500) Days of Summer, A Serious Man and The Hangover, each script far more inventive than James Cameron's, which actually included the line "I didn't sign up for this shit."

Without a DGA win, Avatar's only major win will have been at the Golden Globes. As EW's Dave Karger points out, in the past five years, only one Golden Globes winner in either of its Best Picture categories has gone on to win the Oscar.

Had The Hurt Locker picked up the SAG award -- unlike Avatar, it was nominated by the actors -- it would be the clear favorite right now. Up in the Air has faded considerably since topping many critics' groups lists. Inglourious Basterds' win at the SAGs certainly signals it's a lock for a Best Picture nomination, but it is still a longshot to actually win the award. At the moment, it looks like a race between Avatar and The Hurt Locker, movies directed by former spouses. This, too, could hurt Cameron, because surely Bigelow will pick up some support from anyone who watched the Golden Globes, if for no other reason than she deserves some sort of award for being married to that pompous ass.

While the Producers Guild nominees looked more like what the Oscar race will look like this year, the Directors Guild nominees -- Up in the Air, Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds and Precious -- look more like a traditional Best Picture race and will make it easy to decipher a clear winner. My bet: if either Cameron or Bigelow wins the DGA award -- the last major guild award before Oscar nominations come out -- this weekend, he or she ends up winning both the Best Director and Best Picture Oscars. If someone else takes home the DGA award, it's all up for grabs.